Showing posts with label analyst report. Show all posts
Showing posts with label analyst report. Show all posts

Friday, September 19, 2014

Felda Global IPO revisited (update 1)

21 September 2014: Lots of talk about Felda Global / FGV share price among KL share market observers. It recently fell to a low of RM3.46/share. Notably below even the most pessimistic view (Macquarie - see below) at the time of its IPO in mid 2012. The 52-week share price trading range: 3.460 - 4.700.
 
source: Bloomberg.com, 19 September 2014
 
  
13 July 2012: Credit Suisse issues report on Felda Global, 12 July 2012: "We initiate coverage on Felda Global Ventures (FGV) with an UNDERPERFORM rating and a target price of RM4.90, a potential downside risk of 11%. There are far better choices—younger age profile with more attractive valuations—in the region. We prefer Genting Plantations and Sime Darby in Malaysia, London Sumatra and Salim Ivomas in Indonesia.... Positives: large, leveraged to palm oil prices, fast-tracked to the indices, net cash position, clear dividend policy and a turnaround plan for downstream... Negatives: Old with falling yields, low profitability, minimal organic growth, potentially less transparency, 1QFY12 results have halved... Expensive and fully valued at CY12 and CY13 P/Es of 16.9x and 17.4x respectively..."

Source: Credit Suisse


Khor Reports Comment: This is the second "underperform" rated report on Felda Global by an investment broker that we have seen. Another report, issued by Macquarie Equities Research on 29 June 2012, gives a price target of RM3.85.

Monday, July 9, 2012

50% utilization plus excess soybean demand in China?

Khor Reports notes and comments:  

In a report on earnings risks at Wilmar’s “oilseeds & grains” business, by brokerage Kim Eng, dated 5 July, “Times not soy good anymore”, target price: 3.25 on 1.2x p/b some interesting data points: 

a) Soybean crushing utilization at 50% with continued China SOE expansion (apparently to reduce market share of foreign companies ); 

b) anecdotes on soybeans as a form of alternate financing of real estate/ stock market investments over last 2 years (page 4). Does this have some sort of parallel with availability of palm oil below global market prices in China?