Friday, June 22, 2012

What do Felda settlers now think of the IPO?


Khor Reports notes and comments: 

I’ve been getting ad hoc feedback from on-the-ground politicians, journalists and locals who have been visiting Felda settlements. There are consistent reports that the Felda settlers are expressing dissatisfaction with a) the RM15,000 bonus payout and b) the 800 shares for which they can subscribe in the Felda Global IPO;  they feel they ought to have gotten more. Also, there is a fundamental question about whether Felda should be about new settlers again.
 

The RM15,000 bonus is causing family squabbles?

The RM15,000 is paid out in three tranches. The first RM5,000 has been paid to the Felda settler - the male head of the household. Apparently, this has generated much friction and strife within the family. The children of these settlers fear that their RM5,000 portion may not be paid, therefore, they are asking their father to distribute to them from his share now. This is a lot of squabbling, as a Felda settler family may 5 or more children, and therefore 7 or more family members (excluding grand-children). This leaves little on a per head basis, if shared immediately. Moreover, we also hear stories that the male family head may have used up the money within a week - in settlement of outstanding debts (creditors were clamouring, knowing about the payout!) and/or in celebrations.


The second RM5,000 tranche to be paid to the wife on the 7th June, has created strife for those with more than one wife. The administration of PM Najib had to intervene on the matter, to say that the payment would be divided equally among all such claimants.


A date for the payment of the third tranche, due to the children of the Felda settler, has not yet been announced. This has caused some uncertainty, and suspicion that it is contingent on general election voting results.


Bottom line: The RM15,000 windfall seems to  insufficient for the Felda settler family size, and it has created unwanted and unforeseen family disputes.


An uneven and politicized share allocation?

The Felda settlers may be increasingly aware that so much more of the "IPO goodies" in terms of share allocation tranche, is widely thought to be directed mostly toward wealthy Bumiputeras, many of whom would be UMNO supporters. The "MITI investors" tranche is viewed by the market in this manner. 

     MITI investors (wealthy Malays likely to support UMNO??): 419.5 million shares
     Felda employees & persons who have contributed: 109.4 million shares
     Felda settlers: 91.2 million shares


New settlers?


Moreover, some Felda settlers suggest that the commercial plantation lands should be given out to new settlers instead of being leased out to Felda Global.


Ideally, an independent sample survey of Felda settler opinions should be conducted. The consistency of these ad hoc findings raises important questions on the likely outcomes of the Felda Global IPO-related bonuses to the Felda settler families. Will these bonuses backfire to some extent, strengthen support or gain more votes in Felda-related constituencies for the next Malaysia general election for the ruling UMNO/BN coalition?



Conclusion: It seems that the pre-electoral goodies offered by the administration of PM Najib to the Felda settlers, from the Felda Global IPO, might be going a bit "flat". 

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Felda Global strategic investor woes? (updated)

The Felda Global IPO is next week on 28th June 2012, but at the last minute a pall is cast on the listing by troubling news reports that its strategic partner Louis Dreyfus, a global commodity power house, is pulling out as a strategic investor. The commodity giant was initially offered a 5% stake, but later it was expected to take 2.5%.

News articles:
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/highlights/215682-fgv-skirts-louis-dreyfus-pullout.html 


Khor Reports comments: 

We heard rumours of a possible Louis Dreyfus pullout at the end of last week, and the news was broken by The Edge Malaysia on Monday. The strategic partnership may still proceed, but the investment stake seems to be in doubt.

It is unfortunate that Felda Global had earlier touted Cargill and Bunge as possible investors and failed to secure either. Worse now, and well past the company’s cut-off date of 13 June for book building, it seems that Louis Dreyfus and Felda Global are still in negotiation and neither has yet to come out to categorically and convincingly deny the news reports of a pullout. 

The industry chatter was that Dreyfus might want to aggressively expand its palm oil physical trade presence, and would be keen to invest, while the others were ambivalent. This eleventh hour uncertainty over a strategic investor, a commodity powerhouse, could add a serious pall to the upcoming IPO. 

Felda Global has tried to calm the market by reiterating that it has many other strategic investors and that the over subscription for its shares is vast. However, many market players and commentators openly express doubts on the high figures reported. Furthermore, none of the other strategic investors have the clout and credibility of catching one such as Louis Dreyfus. 

The commodity giants are already invested in the palm oil trade. These include ADM which has a 15% strategic stake in Wilmar. Bunge and Cargill have palm businesses via Tiga Pilar Plantations and the Cargill-Temasek joint venture, respectively.Louis Dreyfus has a 50% stake in a bulking installation in Kalimantan with Kencana Agri. It also has an upstream presence via a green-field site on which planting operations started in late 2008, and whose grassland areas will only be planted.


Updated 21 June, 9.25pm for commodity giants palm interests.


Today's news report says that Louis Dreyfus is not a strategic investor at this point, and its stake has been "snapped up" by others.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/21/malaysia-press-idINL3E8HL0A320120621

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Khor Report Facebook page activity

We have started to more actively update the Khor Reports Facebook page. Included are links to news articles which we think are interesting to our readers. We are also updating you on events such as presentations, newsletter and news article releases there. 

Please do visit our page here: 
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Khor-Reports/116785031706985.


Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Conference - algal biofuels

I am in Singapore the next 2 days, at the "Biofuel 2012 - alternative aviation fuel in Asia conference and Asean algae biofuel initiative conference."

Khor Reports notes and comment:

Why are we attending? Every senior scientist we've met (from lipid technologists to energy specialists) is excited about the prospect of algal oils - microalgae are the most productive 'plants' on earth (oil yield potential could be 5 x that of palm oil on a per hectare basis), a wide range of metabolites, and its genetic engineering possibilities.

Right now, we're seated with microbiologists and transport energy consultants. We are hearing about:
o R. opacus is high in palmitic and oleic acids and there are odd chain fatty acids.
o A 2.5ha demonstration plot with USD80 million investment at Kona, Hawaii with photobioreactors.

How does this touch on palm oil? First, a positive. There's a potential use for POME in the cultivation process. Second, a competitive concern: the likes of global giant Unilever says it hopes to replace palm oil in its Dove soap and some other skin care products with algal oils, with a target date 2017.

There are significant scientific and engineering challenges to overcome. They include the selection and optimizing the best strains (development of GM strains), choice of feedstock for sugars (issues in availability and performance) for fermentation, and extraction (the cost of drying the algae or wet extraction - the separation of oil from an aqueous solution), and large scale cultivation technology issues (biological contaminants, lipid enhancement - optimization to enhance productivity and yield, Co2 sources).

How about the economics of production? The demonstration plot at Kona shows that it's not commercially viable for biofuels - capex and opex is too high for lipid output alone (28% of the algae biomass). There is need for production of co-products - protein and carbohydrate and omega-3 fatty acids (PUFAs). With all products, revenue USd4818/MT and production cost USD1389/MT, and gross margin USD2792. From this study, the biofuel is a co-product! But costs could be lower in Asia versus this demonstration plot feasibility study (Hawaii has high costs).

Thursday, February 9, 2012

GM crops in 2011


GM crops around the world in 2011 – map; New data from the annual report by the International Service for the Acquisition of Agribiotic Applications shows where farmers are growing GM crops around the world; http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/graphic/2012/feb/09/gm-crops-world-2011-map?intcmp=122.




Khor Reports comment: Note the large acreage with GM soybean in US, Brazil, Argentina and South Africa; indicated as second to maize.

Monday, January 30, 2012

Palm oil biodiesel fails?

"....new data comes from a leak obtained by EurActiv from the European Commission. The EC is considering what level of carbon emissions each type of biofuel causes once burned, after everything - including "indirect land-use change" - is taken into account.... The EU's scheme for certifying biofuels as sustainable requires them to emit 35% less CO2 than regular fuel, increasing to 60% by 2018, making palm oil, soy bean, rapeseed and sunflower looking all but dead.... Palm oil biodiesel also received another blow on Friday, with the US Environmental Protection Agency suggesting it fails to meet the US requirement of emitting at least 20% less carbon than diesel from crude oil....The European Union's target for 10% of all transport fuels to be biofuels by 2020 has been described as "unethical" because the production of some types violates human rights and damages the environment. But the same researchers described do nothing to find alternative to the fossil fuels that currently power transport as "immoral".... So the difficult task of distinguishing good and bad biofuels remains essential, as does the research of even more promising technologies, such as algae and seaweed."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2012/jan/27/biofuels-biodiesel-ethanol-palm-oil

Other news, Amazon rainforest mapped, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/27/amazon-rainforest-map-biodiversity-detail.

Older news, UK firm's failed biofuel dream wrecks lives of Tanzania villagers; The collapse of Sun Biofuels has left hundreds of Tanzanians landless, jobless, and in despair for the future
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/oct/30/africa-poor-west-biofuel-betrayal.

Khor Reports comment: The inclusion of indirect land-use change seems to throw out many feedstocks for biofuels - palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil. Palm oil with methane capture is only so much better than crude oil, it seems. Sugar cane passes muster, and so does maize. In tighter and more troubled economic times in Europe, one has to wonder at commitment to subsidies on biofuels?

Sunday, January 22, 2012

Conservation news links - on algae and REDD

GM microbe breakthrough paves way for large-scale seaweed farming for biofuels; Scientists have created a genetically engineered microbe that turns the algae into low-carbon biofuel, but must make the technique commercially viable; http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/19/gm-microbe-seaweed-biofuels; "...using 3% of the world's coastal waters to grow seaweed would produce 60bn gallons of ethanol..."

Conserving biodiversity hotspots 'could bring world's poor $500bn a year'; Study puts economic value on the indirect ecosystem services provided by the world's poorest people; http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/20/conserving-biodiversity-poor-economic-value?intcmp=122

Khor Reports comments:
a) Algal oils are a hoped for alternative source for biofuels and also for consumer product usage. Unilever is hoping to replace palm oil with algal oils in some of its Dove Soap products and others within 5 years or so.
b) Who pays for conservation? REDD+ programs seem to be at early pilot test stages. Norway has the USD 1 billion deforestation moratorium deal with Indonesia. Ecuador is offering not to develop a rainforest area if it gets paid 1/2 of the potential revenue from extracting the hydrocarbons there.