Thursday, July 12, 2012

Cambodia local elections impacted by land discontent?

Cambodian PM's party triumphs in election test run,PHNOM PENH | Tue Jun 5, 2012 5:37am EDT:"Official results from Sunday's elections for the chiefs of areas known as communes are not expected for several weeks but the major parties were in agreement that Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party (CPP) had swept the polls, as it has in all national ballots in the past decade. The CPP claimed 72 percent of the seats in what it sees as a test of support ahead of the 2013 election. General elections take place every five years....The latest polls did throw up some signs of discontent, with the CPP's notable loss of seats in areas that have seen long-running land disputes and forced evictions from land leased to foreign companies. The government suspended new land concessions to foreign firms in May...." http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/05/us-cambodia-elections-idUSBRE8540E420120605

Khor Reports comment: In the 2007 commune elections, the Cambodian People's Party won 1,592 commune chief (97%) out of 1,633 communes. The claimed victory of 72% of seats last month suggests a 17%-age point reduction in the number of seats. Just before the elections, new economic land concessions to foreigners were frozen. In the previous two years, there had been a surge in award of such concessions. Land disputes seem to be rife and these have apparently impacted on the ruling party's electoral results, although it still holds a very commanding position. When we started to research Cambodia agricultural concessions several years ago, there was little sign of NGO activity. Now, there are several active on land dispute matters. One is focused on sugar projects, lobbying foreign-buyers to boycott Cambodian sugar because of land conflicts.

Monday, July 9, 2012

50% utilization plus excess soybean demand in China?

Khor Reports notes and comments:  

In a report on earnings risks at Wilmar’s “oilseeds & grains” business, by brokerage Kim Eng, dated 5 July, “Times not soy good anymore”, target price: 3.25 on 1.2x p/b some interesting data points: 

a) Soybean crushing utilization at 50% with continued China SOE expansion (apparently to reduce market share of foreign companies ); 

b) anecdotes on soybeans as a form of alternate financing of real estate/ stock market investments over last 2 years (page 4). Does this have some sort of parallel with availability of palm oil below global market prices in China?