Indonesia parliamentary elections (update 2)

RSIS Commentary 070/2014, 15 April 2014, Indonesia’​s Ambiguous Elections: Implicatio​ns for the Region by Yang Razali Kassim: Indonesia's 4th parliamentary elections since the fall of strongman Suharto in 1998 have taken place without incident. Though the official results are expected only in May the contours of the new political landscape are emerging. The two-step exercise in its latest democratic transition – parliamentary followed by presidential elections - is likely to revolve around the top three parties, the Indonesian Party of Struggle (PDIP), Golkar and the Greater Indonesia Movement (Gerindra).... Over the next three months, they will display intense political manoeuvering as they engage in coalition-building and deal-making with nine other smaller parties to achieve two parallel objectives: victory in the coming July presidential election and forming a government supported by the majority of the incoming parliament.... In the post-Reformasi era, the Indonesian parliament has become increasingly independent of the Presidency, and at times even prone to chest-thumping, as if to make up for the three decades of being subservient to president Suharto. In the last parliament, such behaviour had come at the expense of Indonesia’s neighbours. For instance ASEAN’s failure to push through a proposed region-wide anti-haze law was partly due to this. The legislature simply dragged its feet and refused to ratify the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution Bill, which had been passed by all other ASEAN members.... This posture reflected a parliament that did not want to be seen as being dictated to by other countries. Will the new legislature seek to be even more independent-minded, and more assertive, such that the next President will have a difficult time entering into international agreements with other countries? Will the Haze Pollution Bill be finally ratified by Indonesia so that ASEAN can implement its haze-fighting strategy?.... The second known unknown is about the next president. For the three leading parties, their presidential candidates are clear at this point: the hugely popular Joko Widodo or “Jokowi” for PDIP, Aburizal Bakrie for Golkar and Prabowo Subianto for Gerindra. It is quite possible that a new presidential candidate will emerge following the current coalition bargaining. In the direct presidential election in July, Jokowi’s immense popularity with voters will stand him in good stead. However his path to the presidential election may have been made easier had he not faced some resistance from within the PDIP. Yet, notwithstanding his star appeal, there is, paradoxically, not much known about the presidential front runner.... Unlike Jokowi, Bakrie and Prabowo have issued clear manifestos of what they stand for.

Jokowi's poorer showing is put down in part to the unexpectedly good showing of Islamic parties in the parliamentary poll as they moved to the "centre of the political spectrum, and away from a doctrinaire Islamic position"; http://khoryuleng.blogspot.com/2014/04/indonesia-electoral-politics-and-palm.html refer to Greg Fealy's analysis.

Jokowi. Articles on Jokowi in Tempo: http://www.tempo.co/topik/tokoh/613/Jokowi--Joko-Widodo.

Bakrie's blog: http://icalbakrie.com/?page_id=412; articles on Bakrie in Tempo: http://www.tempo.co/topik/tokoh/219/Aburizal-Bakrie; a critical piece: http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/an-environmental-problem-for-brisbane-roar/81/;

Prabowo website: http://prabowosubianto.info/; articles on Prabowo in Tempo: http://www.tempo.co/topik/tokoh/137/Prabowo-Subianto; a critical piece: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/27/world/asia/indonesia-candidate-tied-to-human-rights-abuses-stirs-unease.html?_r=0;


Indonesia poll outcome dims economic reform hopes: analysts
Channel News Asia;13 Apr 2014; http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/indonesia-poll-outcome/1069710.html; Prospects for much-needed reforms in Southeast Asia's top economy are in doubt after a worse-than-expected election performance by the main opposition left Indonesia staring at an unwieldy coalition government, analysts warn.


Indonesian Voters Head to Polls; Voice of America April 08, 2014 ‎; http://www.voanews.com/content/reu-indonesia-gears-up-for-legislative-election/1888504.html 
JAKARTA - Some 187 million voters in Indonesia head to the polls Wednesday in parliamentary elections that will have a big influence on the country's presidential poll in July; Current electoral laws stipulate that a party or coalition of parties must win 25 percent of the popular vote or 20 percent of seats in the national parliament to nominate a presidential candidate....  But polls show that only one party, the Democratic Party of Struggle or PDI-P, will definitely pass the threshold... Known locally as Jokowi, the Jakarta governor is wildly popular for his reputation for transparency and his hands-on approach to governance....  After his presidential bid was confirmed last month, the PDI-P’s popularity jumped from 27 to 37 percent in a widely watched opinion poll. The same poll showed the next closest party lagging 20 percent behind....  Professor Jemadu said it is too soon to call a Widodo presidential victory a certainty, but he said it is clear Indonesian voters want change....  A relative outsider with no connection to the country’s political elite, Joko Widodo is being touted as a new breed of Indonesian politician...  Nonetheless, even as Widodo offers hope and change, the voting system is riddled with corruption... Since the collapse of Suharto’s 32-year authoritarian rule, this year marks the fourth time Indonesians will democratically elect their parliament...  Results for the parliamentary election will be officially announced by May 9, but a quick count of the polls is expected within 24 hours.

Indonesia Vote Shapes Presidency Race as Jokowi Seeks Boost, Apr 8, 2014; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-07/indonesia-vote-shapes-presidential-race-as-jokowi-urges-turnout.html; Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo said nothing about his party’s plans for the country should it win a large slice of seats in a parliamentary election tomorrow. Instead he appealed to voters for a big turnout for the party, known as PDI-P, in a vote that will affect his bid to become the next president of Southeast Asia’s largest economy.... If Widodo’s popularity means PDI-P can get a significant portion of the vote he may not have to form the type of large, disparate coalition that has been the hallmark of previous governments.... By contrast, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democrat party won about 26 percent of seats in the 2009 vote and had to trade cabinet posts to form a coalition with five other parties.,,,If PDI-P fares well in the vote and seeks a small coalition, potential partners would be the National Awakening Party, or PKB, newcomer NasDem, or the National Mandate Party, or PAN, said Marcus Mietzner, associate professor at ANU.. In a nation where the major parties have similar policy views on issues from the economy to resource management to education, party campaigns have been focused more on pushing individual personalities than laying out details of platforms and how they would help ordinary citizens.... Bakrie of Golkar, Indonesia’s oldest political party, has promoted resource protectionism alongside a focus on building infrastructure, without giving specifics.....

Khor Reports comment: What impact on regulatory changes relating to the palm oil supply chain, including on foreign ownership limit? There is a target to get this done before the end of the current presidential term. The presidential election will be on 9 July 2014. Currently, all the ministries relevant to palm oil are held by different political parties. This is regarded as having stymied more coordinated policy actions. According to news reports, there are few policy differences between the parties; Jokowi has been silent on PDI-P's policy platform while Golkar has promoted resource protectionism. We'll find out more from friends in Jakarta once these results are in and the Presidential campaigns heat up.

Revisiting Brundtland Report 1987

Khor Reports: The risks in unequal trade deals has long been recognized, even in the earliest days of the international push for change for sustainability in its broadest sense (inter-generational equity and more) . The UN’s "Our Common Future" / Brundtland Report of 1987 was still heavy on a government role and the principle of “sharing” and conflict mitigation between unequal institutions in the developed world and the developing world. This thinking seems of lower currency in the 2000s sustainability movement (or not highly practiced), including in the sector of palm oil sustainability, which has been narrowly driven on the basis of eco-certification or labeling. The narrower approach is associated with greater competition among NGOs for control of market share in eco-labels and market access policies, as seen across various agro-commodities. In palm oil, top Indonesia policy makers and industry associations are stepping up on regulatory changes and plans for national spatial landuse mapping. Is this the return of government to mediate the uneven negotiations of the big B2NGO2B deal phase? Also witness Australia state government moves to raise the standard on NGO claims and reduce the problem of market boycotts; http://khorreports-palmoil.blogspot.com/2014/04/australia-resource-industries-seek-ban.html.


The Brundtland Report states: “Effective cooperation with transnational corporations (TNCs) is possible in creating equal conditions for all parties. This can be attained by a strict observance of the principle of sovereignty of the host country. For their part, many corporations have recognized the need to share managerial skills and technological know-how with host country nationals and to pursue profit-seeking objectives within a framework of long-tern sustainable development....But mutual suspicions still exist, usually because of an asymmetry in bargaining power between large corporations and small, poor, developing countries. Negotiations are often made one sided by a developing country's lack of information, technical unpreparedness, and political and institutional weaknesses. Suspicions and disagreements remain, particularly concerning the introduction of new technologies, the development of natural resources, and the use of the environment. If multinationals are to play a larger role in development, these conflicts and suspicions must be reduced.....Strengthening the bargaining posture and response of developing countries vis-a-vis transnationals is therefore critical. Where nations lack indigenous capacity to deal with large TNCs, regional and other international institutions should assist” (Brundtland and Khalid 1987, 76).

Brundtland, Gro Harlem , and Mansour Khalid. 1987. "Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development: Our Common Future (Brundtland Report)." United Nations. Accessed April 12, 2014. http://www.un-documents.net/our-common-future.pdf.

Algal vs palm oil. Coming soon?

The use of algal oil to partially replace palm oil in home and personal care (HPC) is being planned by some companies. The first major brand which stated such a plan is Unilever. Ironically, the company is a key leader in the RSPO which says it promotes the use of sustainable palm oil (but a few RSPO members have taken this to be insufficient and instead pledge no palm oil usage; and much to the consternation of other RSPO members).

Ecover recently reports plans to produce algal oil in Brazil and then in its own factory in Belgium, for a new laundry liquid for launch in Europe in a few months time. Thus, we have a company in HPC pledging "no palm oil" eventually, starting with 7% replacement [1]. Francophone Europe has faced heavy negative palm oil campaigns and various food producers feature products with "no palm oil." Algal oil technology is still evolving and costing needs to be improved [2], but things can shift with many researchers working on this. An update on costing is needed. So far, it sounds like an early higher cost partial substitute for premium HPC products. Thus, we see Unilever still planning a new production facility in Sumatra for the use of palm kernel oil for oleochemicals in its HPC products. At the same time, in a separate and yet related trend, another key HPC brand, P&G is facing pressure from Greenpeace.

[1] News item: Ecover adopting algae-based laundry liquid to cut palm oil use, The Guardian, Wednesday 2 April 2014, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/apr/02/ecover-algae-laundry-liquid-palm-oil; Ecover, the green cleaning company, will launch the algae-based laundry liquid in Europe later in 2014, as part of its pledge to ultimately replace all palm oil.... “Through our research into palm oil replacements, we discovered that algae are capable of producing one of the purest and cleanest oils available,” said Dirk Develter, Ecover’s Head of Research and Development. “Algal oils have a much smaller ecological footprint than most tropical oils, such as palm oil, making them ideal for home products, where tropical oils are widely used.”... At the start, 7% of the oil ingredients in the laundry liquid will come from algae, Ecover said, with the intention of raising that proportion as more is learned about its use. The first algal oil will be produced in Brazil from sugarcane, which is an efficient feedstock with a relatively low carbon and water footprint..... Ecover said it would be producing algal oils close to its Belgian factory in three years and was examining different feedstocks, including agricultural and forest waste, to identify which was the most sustainable feedstock of those locally available.... Ecover is also researching the use of bacteria to convert organic material into useful chemicals and, in 2013, the company committed to using plastic waste retrieved from the sea to create sustainable and recyclable plastic bottles.... Algae, and seaweed, are being developed as biofuel sources by numerous companies and the US Navy has tested algal fuel in its ships.

[2] Khor Reports at 2012 conference on algal biofuels; I am in Singapore... at the "Biofuel 2012 - alternative aviation fuel in Asia conference and Asean algae biofuel initiative conference."... How does this touch on palm oil? First, a positive. There's a potential use for POME in the cultivation process. Second, a competitive concern: the likes of global giant Unilever says it hopes to replace palm oil in its Dove soap and some other skin care products with algal oils, with a target date 2017... How about the economics of production? ..... Read more here: http://khorreports-palmoil.blogspot.com/2012/02/conference-algal-biofuels.html 


Algal oil researchers:

SGI, founded by J.Craig Venter; newslink below on his R&D on algae for biofuels:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2012/06/24/milking-oil-from-algae-craig-venter-makes-progress-in-exxon-backed-venture/ (thanks to a reader for this link!)