This blog highlights news and views on markets, marketing, sustainability and political-economics of palm oil. Any views belong to the respective authors and do not represent that of any particular organization. I update this in my spare time. Since mid-2016, the more "comprehensive" news is available on customized request. Market news and big news continue to be updated. Thank you for reader interest that has generated over 130,000 page views in 2016.
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Africa: NGOs asked to disclose info?
Thank you to a Khor Reports' international reader for alerting some news, in response to our recent posting on remote sensing and transparency. Interestingly, the Liberia government asks NGOs for some information disclosure (see news clipping image below). Might other Africa governments do the same?
Khor Reports comment: As Africa is in development mode, they will probably be more sensitive to interventions that affect their economic development policies. The asymmetry of information flows generated by plantation sustainability is notable. Plantations have released a lot of information and have also brought NGOs in-house to assist them in various technical and market access fields. They will be giving out more data such as the geovectors of their boundaries, land bank maps and land type details for usage by the public and NGOs via new RSPO and TFT-Wilmar's policies. In contrast other stakeholders have not needed to release much information.
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
Remote sensing brings new transparency
From Khor Reports's Palm Oil Newsletter #6 Jan/Feb 2014
New transparency
The use of remote-sensing technologies in the industry are in its early stages while some NGOs are also advanced users. Aerial sensor technologies use images from satellites and drones, to detect and classify objects on the surface; saving the need to be on the ground. Given the importance of its applications, expanding availability of cost-effective data sets, equipment and services, it is set to grow. We look at three usages: the first informs biofuels policy and two have significant potential impact.
1. Setting biofuels policy
To help set biofuels policy, the International Council on Clean Transportation or ICCT needed to know and project how much oil palm is developed on peat. Satellite images were used to estimate the area of expansion 1990-2010: Data sets used include 1990 GeoCover with 28.5 m spatial resolution, 2007 Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT) satellite images with high spatial resolution (10–20 m) . Spatial resolution refers to how close two features can be within an image and still be recorded as distinct.
Four maps presenting the extent and distribution of industrial oil palm plantations on peatland in 1990, 2000, 2007, and 2010 in Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, and Borneo were produced from the high resolution data sets with visual interpretation. The reported producer’s and user’s accuracies of 96% to 97%, suggest “high reliability” of the maps produced by this approach For 2007 through 2010, the area on peat increased 190,000 ha/year and “taking Indonesia and Malaysia together, the linear projections imply a 32% rate of palm expansion onto peat soils.” This is a key data point for biofuels policies in various developed markets. It is contested by the palm oil industry which: i) argues against the use of a simple projection from past to future, ii) points to the need for updated peatland area maps, iii) laments the poor scientific basis for voluntary policies against shallow peatland use, and the general lack of tropical peat studies. Why is less than 50 cm peat not considered by some voluntary standards? This is the depth set by the US Department of Agriculture to classify organic from peat soils [1].
2. Upstream planning & management
Satellite images are often used in due diligence studies on acquisitions. Plantations can also use satellite or drone-acquired images for topographic mapping, to help in planning for drainage, planting terraces, and planting patterns on slopes. RSPO also asks companies to produce accurate maps to identify areas with slope over 25 degrees* and 300 m above sea level. Interestingly, there is work to establish spectrum responses for early detection of chloropyll and moisture stress for better management. Can a narrow band even pick up on certain diseases? Previously, 4-5 bands were available and now 300 bands of specific wavelengths can detect variations [2].
3. NGOs bring “radical transparency”
Technical NGOs are actively using imagery from satellites to monitor plantation activity. The WWF has also started to use drones in conservation projects. External monitoring of peat smog fire hot spots were speedily done with accuracy in the 2013 record-breaking Sumatran peat smog season. Back in n 1997 hot spots could be 1km out and a hot zinc roof might also be mistaken for a fire [2]. Now, high resolutions including 2.5 meter resolution can pinpoint with confidence.
World Resources Institute (WRI) has its Global Forest Watch (GFW) initiative that is seeking palm oil supply chain clients. “(Using) near real-time satellite monitoring technology, forest management, and company concession maps, protected areas maps, mobile technology, crowd-sourced data, and
on-the-ground networks to promote transparency in forests around the world (15 Nov 2013, csrwire.com). Similarly, The Forest Trust (TFT) plans “To bring more transparency to a complicated forestry supply chain… (it) developed a monitoring tool that allows companies to convey real-time radical transparency in supply chains.” TFT’s tool is piloted for Asia Pulp and Paper (APP), with a dashboard that “allows the company to display detailed data going beyond compliance and displaying implementation of sustainability commitments (on 2.6 million hectares).” “In February 2013, after working closely with leading NGOs, APP launched a new Forest Conservation Policy… with a range of stakeholders” (15 Nov 2013, csrwire.com). As TFT also leads Wilmar, the above appears likely for Wilmar’s new policies and approach for palm oil.
Separately, we hear from NGO specialists they NGOs are ready to report on plantation impacts (Khor Reports interview, Nov 2013). This could mean that there will soon be contested reports in this vein: Plantation A has cleared an estimated X hectares and Y tonnes of high carbon stock since a cut of date, e.g. Nov 2005; with a breakdown by estimated non-peat and peat land area, HCV vs non-HCV etc. NGOs lacked accurate concession boundaries data. However, at the recent RSPO General Assembly, a resolution for growers to submit soft copies of their geovector boundaries was passed. These will be posted on the RSPO website for public access and use. While new corporate-ready technical NGOs such as TFT and WRI seek to provide radical transparency solutions for plantations, there will be others who may use the same data and approach for campaigning purposes. There are many possible users and usages, once technology costs have fallen as they have, and the necessary crucial private data is released. Eyes wide open!
[1] “Historical Analysis and Projection of Oil Palm Plantation Expansion on Peatland in Southeast Asia” by J Miettinen et al. White Paper Number 17 | February 2012. Indirect Effects of Biofuel Production. www.theicct.org.
[2] Khor Reports visited Applied Agricultural Resources Sdn Bhd, 10 Dec 2013, on technical updates. In future newsletters: carbon measurements, pests & diseases, genome prospects, and the politics of peat science.
Look out for Khor Reports' Palm Oil Newsletter #6, Jan/Feb 2014! This article is a sneak preview article from this issue (delayed in publication process).
Khor Reports blog exclusive note: Industry sources tell us that Wilmar's new procurement policy is being activated with a request for detailed maps and information about their supplier's land banks. This dovetails with RSPO policies in a way that could make transparent the maps for many plantation companies in the larger categories. If you are a RSPO member, you need to disclose and/or if you are a Wilmar supplier.
Update for reader comment *Enjoyed reading your article but I was wondering whether for point number 2 on Upstream planning and management’s paragraph line 5, the slope which RSPO ask companies to identify was 25 degrees rather than 25%. 45 degrees is equal to 100%. The 25 degrees is threshold slope for land development in the land code for Sabah and Sarawak whilst in the Peninsular, it is 20 degrees.
New transparency
The use of remote-sensing technologies in the industry are in its early stages while some NGOs are also advanced users. Aerial sensor technologies use images from satellites and drones, to detect and classify objects on the surface; saving the need to be on the ground. Given the importance of its applications, expanding availability of cost-effective data sets, equipment and services, it is set to grow. We look at three usages: the first informs biofuels policy and two have significant potential impact.
1. Setting biofuels policy
To help set biofuels policy, the International Council on Clean Transportation or ICCT needed to know and project how much oil palm is developed on peat. Satellite images were used to estimate the area of expansion 1990-2010: Data sets used include 1990 GeoCover with 28.5 m spatial resolution, 2007 Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT) satellite images with high spatial resolution (10–20 m) . Spatial resolution refers to how close two features can be within an image and still be recorded as distinct.
Four maps presenting the extent and distribution of industrial oil palm plantations on peatland in 1990, 2000, 2007, and 2010 in Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, and Borneo were produced from the high resolution data sets with visual interpretation. The reported producer’s and user’s accuracies of 96% to 97%, suggest “high reliability” of the maps produced by this approach For 2007 through 2010, the area on peat increased 190,000 ha/year and “taking Indonesia and Malaysia together, the linear projections imply a 32% rate of palm expansion onto peat soils.” This is a key data point for biofuels policies in various developed markets. It is contested by the palm oil industry which: i) argues against the use of a simple projection from past to future, ii) points to the need for updated peatland area maps, iii) laments the poor scientific basis for voluntary policies against shallow peatland use, and the general lack of tropical peat studies. Why is less than 50 cm peat not considered by some voluntary standards? This is the depth set by the US Department of Agriculture to classify organic from peat soils [1].
2. Upstream planning & management
Satellite images are often used in due diligence studies on acquisitions. Plantations can also use satellite or drone-acquired images for topographic mapping, to help in planning for drainage, planting terraces, and planting patterns on slopes. RSPO also asks companies to produce accurate maps to identify areas with slope over 25 degrees* and 300 m above sea level. Interestingly, there is work to establish spectrum responses for early detection of chloropyll and moisture stress for better management. Can a narrow band even pick up on certain diseases? Previously, 4-5 bands were available and now 300 bands of specific wavelengths can detect variations [2].
3. NGOs bring “radical transparency”
Technical NGOs are actively using imagery from satellites to monitor plantation activity. The WWF has also started to use drones in conservation projects. External monitoring of peat smog fire hot spots were speedily done with accuracy in the 2013 record-breaking Sumatran peat smog season. Back in n 1997 hot spots could be 1km out and a hot zinc roof might also be mistaken for a fire [2]. Now, high resolutions including 2.5 meter resolution can pinpoint with confidence.
World Resources Institute (WRI) has its Global Forest Watch (GFW) initiative that is seeking palm oil supply chain clients. “(Using) near real-time satellite monitoring technology, forest management, and company concession maps, protected areas maps, mobile technology, crowd-sourced data, and
on-the-ground networks to promote transparency in forests around the world (15 Nov 2013, csrwire.com). Similarly, The Forest Trust (TFT) plans “To bring more transparency to a complicated forestry supply chain… (it) developed a monitoring tool that allows companies to convey real-time radical transparency in supply chains.” TFT’s tool is piloted for Asia Pulp and Paper (APP), with a dashboard that “allows the company to display detailed data going beyond compliance and displaying implementation of sustainability commitments (on 2.6 million hectares).” “In February 2013, after working closely with leading NGOs, APP launched a new Forest Conservation Policy… with a range of stakeholders” (15 Nov 2013, csrwire.com). As TFT also leads Wilmar, the above appears likely for Wilmar’s new policies and approach for palm oil.
Separately, we hear from NGO specialists they NGOs are ready to report on plantation impacts (Khor Reports interview, Nov 2013). This could mean that there will soon be contested reports in this vein: Plantation A has cleared an estimated X hectares and Y tonnes of high carbon stock since a cut of date, e.g. Nov 2005; with a breakdown by estimated non-peat and peat land area, HCV vs non-HCV etc. NGOs lacked accurate concession boundaries data. However, at the recent RSPO General Assembly, a resolution for growers to submit soft copies of their geovector boundaries was passed. These will be posted on the RSPO website for public access and use. While new corporate-ready technical NGOs such as TFT and WRI seek to provide radical transparency solutions for plantations, there will be others who may use the same data and approach for campaigning purposes. There are many possible users and usages, once technology costs have fallen as they have, and the necessary crucial private data is released. Eyes wide open!
[1] “Historical Analysis and Projection of Oil Palm Plantation Expansion on Peatland in Southeast Asia” by J Miettinen et al. White Paper Number 17 | February 2012. Indirect Effects of Biofuel Production. www.theicct.org.
[2] Khor Reports visited Applied Agricultural Resources Sdn Bhd, 10 Dec 2013, on technical updates. In future newsletters: carbon measurements, pests & diseases, genome prospects, and the politics of peat science.
Look out for Khor Reports' Palm Oil Newsletter #6, Jan/Feb 2014! This article is a sneak preview article from this issue (delayed in publication process).
Khor Reports blog exclusive note: Industry sources tell us that Wilmar's new procurement policy is being activated with a request for detailed maps and information about their supplier's land banks. This dovetails with RSPO policies in a way that could make transparent the maps for many plantation companies in the larger categories. If you are a RSPO member, you need to disclose and/or if you are a Wilmar supplier.
Update for reader comment *Enjoyed reading your article but I was wondering whether for point number 2 on Upstream planning and management’s paragraph line 5, the slope which RSPO ask companies to identify was 25 degrees rather than 25%. 45 degrees is equal to 100%. The 25 degrees is threshold slope for land development in the land code for Sabah and Sarawak whilst in the Peninsular, it is 20 degrees.
Monday, January 27, 2014
Editorial: New challenge for the supply chain
From Khor Reports's Palm Oil Newsletter #6 Jan/Feb 2014
Editorial: New challenge for the supply chain
Wilmar, the largest trader of palm oil in the world, has come out to change its supply chain promise, signing a deal to secure its position supplying to Unilever. The Anglo-Dutch consumer goods behemoth, ranked #2 in the world after Nestle, had weeks earlier promised to accelerate its sustainability push. Unilever has taken a lead in promoting the principle of sustainability in its materials sourcing via a top role at the RSPO from its inception nearly 10 years ago. For Unilever’s efforts to reduce environmental damage, Dutchman "Polman is the first CEO of a major multinational company to receive the Duke of Edinburgh conservation award since it began in 1970," Bloomberg reported 3 Dec 2013. Wilmar has faced NGO grumblings for not practicing sustainable sourcing for its third-party purchases (which is many times bigger than its own internal production) and over its sale of troubled assets. With its new promise, the giant trader is challenged to rationalize its supply chain. How will Wilmar achieve this without downsizing its business? In general, traceability with high level promises is tougher for large traders with complex supply chains. Industry talk in recent weeks has centered on top producers being asked to sign on to a new RSPO++ manifesto (characterized by multiple additional criteria), building on TFT-Greenpeace principles (they have become de facto new leaders of palm oil sustainability, seizing power from the WWF-driven RSPO). If the key palm oil producers accede, it could be business-as-usual for Wilmar but its cost structure may shift. Its promises can be fulfilled by tough action by its trade partners. Thus, we await information from other industry players on the manner of their support of Wilmar-Unilever.
Questions of impact abound. Could this bring on faster unit cost convergence for large-scale corporate SE Asia palm oil vs Brazil soybean oil? For the industry at large, policy makers should be concerned with: a) how a traceable, no-peat, no deforestation, GHG-reducing palm oil supply chain will look like; b) who will be the winners and the losers; and c) how the transition will be effected, and with what effort to mitigate the impact on the losers. Politics may even be a factor given the size of the smallholder sector, rural development programs and promises. How will the new TFT-Greenpeace-driven principles be operationalized? Khor Report thinks that each palm oil mill will need to be supply-chain risk categorized. Could this segment different production zones with discounting factors? Will a November 1995 baseline apply and will high carbon stock measurement become essential? In this regard, the Golden Agri/Sinar Mas pilot done by TFT-Greenpeace is important. What requirements will Africa face even as it remains a net importer for years and has great hopes for rural development?
Various tropical and other commodities face pressures from an ascendant and increasingly well-funded international green movement. The key to its penetration is in promoting new global voluntary standards that have strong staying power. In taking on technical consulting roles NGOs can become self-funding and perpetuating in these sectors. In relative terms, the corporate sector has been scrabbling for footing amidst this structural change, while the independent and smallholder sectors are adrift with little voice. The largest plantation companies (especially those with European assets and market exposure) have been moving ahead. The swing from WWF to TFT-Greenpeace leadership in sustainability is happening just as developed markets think twice about biofuels policies and bumper oilseed crops are anticipated. The falling price ceiling of vegetable oil substitutes is crushing the palm oil price discount differential while big growers (i) face a new cost component at newly acquired estates via the RSPO compensation procedure (in “staged implementation” with a launch target of Nov 2014) and (ii) plan how to step up to the TFT-Wilmar demands. This new cost and opportunity cost intensive phase of the sustainability push proves its strategic importance on the entire palm oil supply-chain, if ever there were any doubt.
Look out for Khor Reports' Palm Oil Newsletter #6, Jan/Feb 2014! This article is a sneak preview article from this issue (delayed in publication process)
Editorial: New challenge for the supply chain
Wilmar, the largest trader of palm oil in the world, has come out to change its supply chain promise, signing a deal to secure its position supplying to Unilever. The Anglo-Dutch consumer goods behemoth, ranked #2 in the world after Nestle, had weeks earlier promised to accelerate its sustainability push. Unilever has taken a lead in promoting the principle of sustainability in its materials sourcing via a top role at the RSPO from its inception nearly 10 years ago. For Unilever’s efforts to reduce environmental damage, Dutchman "Polman is the first CEO of a major multinational company to receive the Duke of Edinburgh conservation award since it began in 1970," Bloomberg reported 3 Dec 2013. Wilmar has faced NGO grumblings for not practicing sustainable sourcing for its third-party purchases (which is many times bigger than its own internal production) and over its sale of troubled assets. With its new promise, the giant trader is challenged to rationalize its supply chain. How will Wilmar achieve this without downsizing its business? In general, traceability with high level promises is tougher for large traders with complex supply chains. Industry talk in recent weeks has centered on top producers being asked to sign on to a new RSPO++ manifesto (characterized by multiple additional criteria), building on TFT-Greenpeace principles (they have become de facto new leaders of palm oil sustainability, seizing power from the WWF-driven RSPO). If the key palm oil producers accede, it could be business-as-usual for Wilmar but its cost structure may shift. Its promises can be fulfilled by tough action by its trade partners. Thus, we await information from other industry players on the manner of their support of Wilmar-Unilever.
Questions of impact abound. Could this bring on faster unit cost convergence for large-scale corporate SE Asia palm oil vs Brazil soybean oil? For the industry at large, policy makers should be concerned with: a) how a traceable, no-peat, no deforestation, GHG-reducing palm oil supply chain will look like; b) who will be the winners and the losers; and c) how the transition will be effected, and with what effort to mitigate the impact on the losers. Politics may even be a factor given the size of the smallholder sector, rural development programs and promises. How will the new TFT-Greenpeace-driven principles be operationalized? Khor Report thinks that each palm oil mill will need to be supply-chain risk categorized. Could this segment different production zones with discounting factors? Will a November 1995 baseline apply and will high carbon stock measurement become essential? In this regard, the Golden Agri/Sinar Mas pilot done by TFT-Greenpeace is important. What requirements will Africa face even as it remains a net importer for years and has great hopes for rural development?
Various tropical and other commodities face pressures from an ascendant and increasingly well-funded international green movement. The key to its penetration is in promoting new global voluntary standards that have strong staying power. In taking on technical consulting roles NGOs can become self-funding and perpetuating in these sectors. In relative terms, the corporate sector has been scrabbling for footing amidst this structural change, while the independent and smallholder sectors are adrift with little voice. The largest plantation companies (especially those with European assets and market exposure) have been moving ahead. The swing from WWF to TFT-Greenpeace leadership in sustainability is happening just as developed markets think twice about biofuels policies and bumper oilseed crops are anticipated. The falling price ceiling of vegetable oil substitutes is crushing the palm oil price discount differential while big growers (i) face a new cost component at newly acquired estates via the RSPO compensation procedure (in “staged implementation” with a launch target of Nov 2014) and (ii) plan how to step up to the TFT-Wilmar demands. This new cost and opportunity cost intensive phase of the sustainability push proves its strategic importance on the entire palm oil supply-chain, if ever there were any doubt.
Look out for Khor Reports' Palm Oil Newsletter #6, Jan/Feb 2014! This article is a sneak preview article from this issue (delayed in publication process)
Labels:
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Khor Reports newsletter,
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Sunday, January 26, 2014
Malaysia palm oil looks to Bangladesh for workers
From Khor Reports's Palm Oil Newsletter #6 Jan/Feb 2014
Seeking workers
Bangladesh migrant workers are now available to key Malaysia sectors (including plantations) on a government-to-government or G2G arrangement basis. The employment of Bangladesh workers in Malaysian plantations is not new. It is thought that the very first batch was recruited in the early 1990s by IOI Corp. Application submission have been made by many companies. The G2G method bypasses the current private broker network for migrant workers, hopefully eliminating the so-called unfair broker fees paid by the migrant workers (a worry to anti-“forced labour” campaigners).
However, hirers note that the G2G method isn't exactly a cheap process. Bangladesh is a possible diversification from the Indonesia worker base, which Malaysia has become startlingly reliant upon.
Plantations have put in the numbers sought; for now the larger ones seem to apply for 300-500 workers. Some have got the first 40-50 or so workers approved, and early submitters may have some 300 approved each. Questions include: (i) whether the levy goes to the Ministry of Primary Industries and Commodities (ii) whether the G2G arrangement can be extended to Sabah (now only for the Peninsula), (iii) how to accelerate and streamline the approval process, including allowing two or more simultaneous applications (interviews with 6 companies, Dec 2013).
Look out for Khor Reports' Palm Oil Newsletter #6, Jan/Feb 2014! This article is a sneak preview article from this issue (delayed in publication process)
Seeking workers
Bangladesh migrant workers are now available to key Malaysia sectors (including plantations) on a government-to-government or G2G arrangement basis. The employment of Bangladesh workers in Malaysian plantations is not new. It is thought that the very first batch was recruited in the early 1990s by IOI Corp. Application submission have been made by many companies. The G2G method bypasses the current private broker network for migrant workers, hopefully eliminating the so-called unfair broker fees paid by the migrant workers (a worry to anti-“forced labour” campaigners).
However, hirers note that the G2G method isn't exactly a cheap process. Bangladesh is a possible diversification from the Indonesia worker base, which Malaysia has become startlingly reliant upon.
Plantations have put in the numbers sought; for now the larger ones seem to apply for 300-500 workers. Some have got the first 40-50 or so workers approved, and early submitters may have some 300 approved each. Questions include: (i) whether the levy goes to the Ministry of Primary Industries and Commodities (ii) whether the G2G arrangement can be extended to Sabah (now only for the Peninsula), (iii) how to accelerate and streamline the approval process, including allowing two or more simultaneous applications (interviews with 6 companies, Dec 2013).
Look out for Khor Reports' Palm Oil Newsletter #6, Jan/Feb 2014! This article is a sneak preview article from this issue (delayed in publication process)
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Khor Reports newsletter,
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Malaysia,
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Indonesia biodiesel - a tepid first tender
From Khor Reports's Palm Oil Newsletter #6 Jan/Feb 2014
A tepid tender
Indonesia’s biodiesel program is getting off to a slow start. Palm oil biodiesel players do not seem to like the “below gas oil benchmark” and the depot-delivered price offered. Below benchmark pricing means that palm oil prices may end up being higher than the selling price of biodiesel and sellers pay (often high) transport costs to the depots (interviews, Nov 2013). Thus, “Pertamina (the national oil company) received bids representing only 18% of the biodiesel tender target of 6.6m kiloleters (for two years supply).” Most producers were unable to bid competitively, with the “price below MOPS (Mean of Platts Singapore) – or MOPS minus alpha – although data over the past four years revealed that biodiesel price has mostly traded above MOPS… (Thus, DBS says) expect the participation rate to remain low for the next biodiesel tender” (Kontan & DBS Research, 2 Jan 2014). Depending on spreads of palm with gas oil prices, exports may prove more attractive.
Dorab Mistry said that Indonesia’s move to increase blending (alongside Malaysia and Brazil; while the USA and the EU balks) will be a “game changer” for palm oil demand. Indonesia upped its biodiesel blend in subsidized fuel from 7.5 to 10% in September 2013 and expanded its 2014 mandate to non-subsidized fuel and industrial users. Biodiesel capacity may jump to 8.8 (by end-2015) from 5.6 million kiloliters (in 2013; Biofuel Producers Association). Mistry says “domestic mandates for biodiesel in Indonesia and Malaysia will work as long as palm prices remain competitive with Brent crude… Between July and October, the spread between palm and gas oil was enough to create an additional monthly biodiesel demand of 100,000 to 150,000 tonnes.” About 6.34 million tonnes of palm oil may be processed into fuel in 2013 (Oil World; Bloomberg.com, 14 Nov 2013).
While Indonesia’s expanding biodiesel program offers new demand for its rising production, the road is not smooth with an unfavourable price formula. We reiterate our concern that key producer economies may lack the fiscal room to sufficiently subsidize biofuels, while political will vacillates.
EU biofuels update: Its governments failed to agree on the level of biodiesel usage. In September 2013, the European Parliament voted for a 6% cap on biodiesel to prevent an EU requirement that at least 10% renewables in transportation energy in 2020. (Bloomberg cited in AmResearch, 16 Dec 2013). Also, “EU policy makers rejected plans to push biofuel suppliers to report increased greenhouse-gas emissions” so there is now an “indefinite delay on ILUC (indirect landuse change)” (Bloomberg.com, 12 Dec 2013).
Khor Reports blog note: The results of a new tender are due soon. Industry talk is that Wilmar bid at MOPS plus. Big sellers are facing off with a big buyer's price formula?
Look out for Khor Reports' Palm Oil Newsletter #6, Jan/Feb 2014! This article is a sneak preview article from this issue (delayed in publication process)
A tepid tender
Indonesia’s biodiesel program is getting off to a slow start. Palm oil biodiesel players do not seem to like the “below gas oil benchmark” and the depot-delivered price offered. Below benchmark pricing means that palm oil prices may end up being higher than the selling price of biodiesel and sellers pay (often high) transport costs to the depots (interviews, Nov 2013). Thus, “Pertamina (the national oil company) received bids representing only 18% of the biodiesel tender target of 6.6m kiloleters (for two years supply).” Most producers were unable to bid competitively, with the “price below MOPS (Mean of Platts Singapore) – or MOPS minus alpha – although data over the past four years revealed that biodiesel price has mostly traded above MOPS… (Thus, DBS says) expect the participation rate to remain low for the next biodiesel tender” (Kontan & DBS Research, 2 Jan 2014). Depending on spreads of palm with gas oil prices, exports may prove more attractive.
Dorab Mistry said that Indonesia’s move to increase blending (alongside Malaysia and Brazil; while the USA and the EU balks) will be a “game changer” for palm oil demand. Indonesia upped its biodiesel blend in subsidized fuel from 7.5 to 10% in September 2013 and expanded its 2014 mandate to non-subsidized fuel and industrial users. Biodiesel capacity may jump to 8.8 (by end-2015) from 5.6 million kiloliters (in 2013; Biofuel Producers Association). Mistry says “domestic mandates for biodiesel in Indonesia and Malaysia will work as long as palm prices remain competitive with Brent crude… Between July and October, the spread between palm and gas oil was enough to create an additional monthly biodiesel demand of 100,000 to 150,000 tonnes.” About 6.34 million tonnes of palm oil may be processed into fuel in 2013 (Oil World; Bloomberg.com, 14 Nov 2013).
While Indonesia’s expanding biodiesel program offers new demand for its rising production, the road is not smooth with an unfavourable price formula. We reiterate our concern that key producer economies may lack the fiscal room to sufficiently subsidize biofuels, while political will vacillates.
EU biofuels update: Its governments failed to agree on the level of biodiesel usage. In September 2013, the European Parliament voted for a 6% cap on biodiesel to prevent an EU requirement that at least 10% renewables in transportation energy in 2020. (Bloomberg cited in AmResearch, 16 Dec 2013). Also, “EU policy makers rejected plans to push biofuel suppliers to report increased greenhouse-gas emissions” so there is now an “indefinite delay on ILUC (indirect landuse change)” (Bloomberg.com, 12 Dec 2013).
Khor Reports blog note: The results of a new tender are due soon. Industry talk is that Wilmar bid at MOPS plus. Big sellers are facing off with a big buyer's price formula?
Look out for Khor Reports' Palm Oil Newsletter #6, Jan/Feb 2014! This article is a sneak preview article from this issue (delayed in publication process)
Indonesia PLN for a million tonnes
Here is a new expected million tonne user of palm oil: Indonesia state-owned electricity firm PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN). http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/01/21/pln-increase-palm-oil-use.html
Khor Reports comment: At a pre-Xmas PO corporate event I attended last month, we were ruminating over one of the host's worries that the long term risk of the anti-PO campaigning is this: it could push PO more and more to non-food uses. That is if the PO industry doesn't do a good job negotiating market access with NGOs. On a positive demand note, Indonesia policy augurs new major demand. But how will the procurement policies of key processing intermediaries impact? All eyes on Wilmar and big producers who are most avidly pushing high-end procurement policies. They have a large share of Indonesia biodiesel capacity. The changes over the next 24 months will bear watching. PLN will be in the size category of the likes of Neste Oil, Unilever etc.
Khor Reports comment: At a pre-Xmas PO corporate event I attended last month, we were ruminating over one of the host's worries that the long term risk of the anti-PO campaigning is this: it could push PO more and more to non-food uses. That is if the PO industry doesn't do a good job negotiating market access with NGOs. On a positive demand note, Indonesia policy augurs new major demand. But how will the procurement policies of key processing intermediaries impact? All eyes on Wilmar and big producers who are most avidly pushing high-end procurement policies. They have a large share of Indonesia biodiesel capacity. The changes over the next 24 months will bear watching. PLN will be in the size category of the likes of Neste Oil, Unilever etc.
Labels:
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Wilmar
Monday, January 13, 2014
Landmark Indonesia ruling on peat infractions
The Indonesia palm oil sector is eyeing a recent court ruling as a land mark case on infractions in a peat area with illegal land clearance and illegal burning of vegetation. The case was brought by the Ministry of Environment against a company developing 1,000 hectares in Acheh. The fines include a payment for "losses to the state" of about USD 9.4 million, while a larger fine was for rehabilitating the land destroyed. Assuming the full 1,000 hectares was destroyed, the rehabilitation fine is equivalent to some USD20,707 per hectare.
Plantation operators will need to look at this in context, plus compare and contrast this to the RSPO HCV Compensation Procedure which has gone rapidly from proposal to "phased implementation" in 4Q2013 with targeted approval for implementation in Nov 2014. With the RSPO General Assembly membership numbers well known, any vote on the matter is considered a "done deal" i.e. there has been a consistent pattern of voting on initiatives that are "contrary" to the growers position. It is estimated that growers are about 15% of the RSPO membership.
In the RSPO HCV Compensation, the cost of peat land rehabilitation is put at some USD11,000 (based on one study, and with partial costing for a short duration i.e. not for the full cycle of oil palm which is the timing used by the RSPO). The basis / parameters of the RSPO and Indonesia MOE are little known, and they should be studied and compared on an "apple to apple" basis.
A crucial difference is that the Indonesia court ruling is on infractions, while the RSPO HCV Compensation is on entire new land concession areas which lack the appropriate HCV assessment documents i.e. there may not have been any other "infractions." The catch-all RSPO approach also requires growers to pay HCV Compensation on any future merger and acquisition deal involving land without acceptable HCV assessment documents. For the RSPO, the compensation fee will be calculated against the November 2005 status of the land. The Indonesia MOE basis needs to be understood too.
Plantation operators will need to look at this in context, plus compare and contrast this to the RSPO HCV Compensation Procedure which has gone rapidly from proposal to "phased implementation" in 4Q2013 with targeted approval for implementation in Nov 2014. With the RSPO General Assembly membership numbers well known, any vote on the matter is considered a "done deal" i.e. there has been a consistent pattern of voting on initiatives that are "contrary" to the growers position. It is estimated that growers are about 15% of the RSPO membership.
In the RSPO HCV Compensation, the cost of peat land rehabilitation is put at some USD11,000 (based on one study, and with partial costing for a short duration i.e. not for the full cycle of oil palm which is the timing used by the RSPO). The basis / parameters of the RSPO and Indonesia MOE are little known, and they should be studied and compared on an "apple to apple" basis.
A crucial difference is that the Indonesia court ruling is on infractions, while the RSPO HCV Compensation is on entire new land concession areas which lack the appropriate HCV assessment documents i.e. there may not have been any other "infractions." The catch-all RSPO approach also requires growers to pay HCV Compensation on any future merger and acquisition deal involving land without acceptable HCV assessment documents. For the RSPO, the compensation fee will be calculated against the November 2005 status of the land. The Indonesia MOE basis needs to be understood too.
Sunday, January 12, 2014
"RSPO+9", new TFT / Climate Advisers-led policies for Wilmar
New The Forest Trust or TFT / Climate Advisers-led policies for Wilmar include these nine (9) substantive policies, which adds on to existing RSPO commitments, hence we can call it "RSPO+9" for now:
(i) non-use of peat land of any depth;
(ii) likely 35 tonnes carbon per hectare ceiling for land development;
(iii) progressive GHG reductions;
(iv) restoration and enrichment of forest and peatlands (similar to RSPO HCV compensation?);
(v) no forced labour,
(vi) 60-hour work week with 1 day off inclusive of overtime,
(vii) 3.8 square meters / 32 square feet of individual living space,
(viii) trade unions and collective bargaining;
(ix) grievance procedure where advisers and stakeholders have a say in banning suppliers.
Khor Reports blog exclusive comment: The independent advisers to Wilmar are TFT of Switzerland and Climate Advisers of the USA. TFT-Greenpeace was instrumental in putting forth the high carbon stocks ceiling principle for Golden-Agri / Sinar Mas which ran into severe NGO campaigning. This resulted in various global buyers suspending palm oil purchases from the large Singapore-based Indonesian conglomerate. Wilmar did not run into such market problems, although it was obviously facing increasingly negative comments about its "problematic" third-party purchases and land deals in the international news and NGO websites. It is notable and interesting that Wilmar also chooses to be led by the strong principles of TFT-Greenpeace. Presumably, Wilmar (also Singapore-based but with operations globally; and large plantation area in Sarawak and Indonesia and a very big refinery market share in China) expects good outcomes from adopting the approach of Golden-Agri and doing much more to boot. Climate Advisers is a relative newcomer to setting market access policy for palm oil. Palm oil companies, mostly owned by Southeast Asian entrepreneurs, have been quite readily accepting NGO-led standards on a voluntary basis. Palm oil is one of the 15 global (mostly tropical) commodities targeted by the WWF, which focuses on the very largest companies to push for more rapid change. However, WWF's Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), now finds itself superseded by the new RSPO+9 effort led by TFT-Greenpeace principles.
Look out of Khor Reports' Palm Oil Newsletter #6, Jan/Feb 2014 for more! This is a sneak preview of our review of Wilmar's bold move. Many ask how they will implement this while NGOs say that this is "just the beginning..."
(i) non-use of peat land of any depth;
(ii) likely 35 tonnes carbon per hectare ceiling for land development;
(iii) progressive GHG reductions;
(iv) restoration and enrichment of forest and peatlands (similar to RSPO HCV compensation?);
(v) no forced labour,
(vi) 60-hour work week with 1 day off inclusive of overtime,
(vii) 3.8 square meters / 32 square feet of individual living space,
(viii) trade unions and collective bargaining;
(ix) grievance procedure where advisers and stakeholders have a say in banning suppliers.
Khor Reports blog exclusive comment: The independent advisers to Wilmar are TFT of Switzerland and Climate Advisers of the USA. TFT-Greenpeace was instrumental in putting forth the high carbon stocks ceiling principle for Golden-Agri / Sinar Mas which ran into severe NGO campaigning. This resulted in various global buyers suspending palm oil purchases from the large Singapore-based Indonesian conglomerate. Wilmar did not run into such market problems, although it was obviously facing increasingly negative comments about its "problematic" third-party purchases and land deals in the international news and NGO websites. It is notable and interesting that Wilmar also chooses to be led by the strong principles of TFT-Greenpeace. Presumably, Wilmar (also Singapore-based but with operations globally; and large plantation area in Sarawak and Indonesia and a very big refinery market share in China) expects good outcomes from adopting the approach of Golden-Agri and doing much more to boot. Climate Advisers is a relative newcomer to setting market access policy for palm oil. Palm oil companies, mostly owned by Southeast Asian entrepreneurs, have been quite readily accepting NGO-led standards on a voluntary basis. Palm oil is one of the 15 global (mostly tropical) commodities targeted by the WWF, which focuses on the very largest companies to push for more rapid change. However, WWF's Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), now finds itself superseded by the new RSPO+9 effort led by TFT-Greenpeace principles.
Look out of Khor Reports' Palm Oil Newsletter #6, Jan/Feb 2014 for more! This is a sneak preview of our review of Wilmar's bold move. Many ask how they will implement this while NGOs say that this is "just the beginning..."
Labels:
carbon,
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Wilmar
US transfats demise
Palm oil sits about mid-point in fatty acid composition; it is semi-solid or half solid and half liquid. 1 in 6 food products it but Dr Kalyana Sundram of the Malaysia Palm Oil Council (PIPOC presentation, 22 Nov 2013) notes a surfeit of emotion in calling palm oil bad for health. Food labelling requirements are on the rise while campaigners “re-invent” the association of palm oil with health issues (several large medical studies find no / no significant association; other studies find palm olein reduces cholesterol as effectively as olive and canola / rapeseed oils). This is sometimes done in combination with sustainability issues; to significant effect in the Francophone world.
Hydrogenation takes a liquid oil, including soybean, to make it solid, creating transfats in the process. Post-World War Two, Unilever incorporated it into margarine. In the 1980s, food industries reformulated to avoid palm oil and the USA and Europe were awash with transfats. Mensink & Katan (New England Journal of Medicine, 1990) showed that margarines were not healthy as transfats increase the risk of heart disease. Harvard Medical School work also challenged hydrogenated oils in the 1990s and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) concurred. Manufacturers reformulated to reduce transfats. The FDA sought evidence for the promotion of palm oil on no-transfats grounds. Sundram’s 2001 study showed that it is safer to eat saturated fats than transfats. US palm oil use boomed, exceeding 1.2 million tonnes. The only reliable commodity substitute was (still is) palm oil.
In November 2013, challenged by a legal suit the US FDA removed its “generally regarded as safe” / GRAS status for transfats. In a single serving food manufacturers were allowed 0.49 grams of transfats (serving sizes were cut to comply). Transfats is now regarded as an additive and not a food ingredient. This is expected to boost palm oil demand in the US market by another 150,000 tonnes in 2014. When will others move on transfats?
Look out for Khor Reports' Palm Oil Newsletter #6, Jan/Feb 2014! This article is a sneak preview article from this issue.
Hydrogenation takes a liquid oil, including soybean, to make it solid, creating transfats in the process. Post-World War Two, Unilever incorporated it into margarine. In the 1980s, food industries reformulated to avoid palm oil and the USA and Europe were awash with transfats. Mensink & Katan (New England Journal of Medicine, 1990) showed that margarines were not healthy as transfats increase the risk of heart disease. Harvard Medical School work also challenged hydrogenated oils in the 1990s and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) concurred. Manufacturers reformulated to reduce transfats. The FDA sought evidence for the promotion of palm oil on no-transfats grounds. Sundram’s 2001 study showed that it is safer to eat saturated fats than transfats. US palm oil use boomed, exceeding 1.2 million tonnes. The only reliable commodity substitute was (still is) palm oil.
In November 2013, challenged by a legal suit the US FDA removed its “generally regarded as safe” / GRAS status for transfats. In a single serving food manufacturers were allowed 0.49 grams of transfats (serving sizes were cut to comply). Transfats is now regarded as an additive and not a food ingredient. This is expected to boost palm oil demand in the US market by another 150,000 tonnes in 2014. When will others move on transfats?
Look out for Khor Reports' Palm Oil Newsletter #6, Jan/Feb 2014! This article is a sneak preview article from this issue.
Friday, January 10, 2014
India increases import duty on refined palm oil from 7.5% to 10%
India finally increases its import duty after months of lobbying by India refiners. Tax differential between crude and refined increases from 5% to 7.5%.
News and view from AmResearch 10 Jan 2014: Bloomberg reported that India has increased the import duty on refined palm oil from 7.5% to 10%. We are not surprised by this development as palm refiners in India have been lobbying for a higher import duty since mid-2013. At that time, the refiners had proposed an import duty of 12.5% on refined palm oil. The Indian Government has given in to the proposal of a higher import duty but at a rate of 10%. Due to the low tax differential between crude and refined palm oil, buyers in India had preferred to import refined palm oil directly instead of buying them from the refiners. It was reported that palm refiners in India were operating at low utilisation rates of only 30%. Companies operating palm refineries in India include Wilmar Adani and Ruchi Soya Industries. We believe that the increase in import duty would not significantly affect the demand for palm oil. India would still be buying palm oil from Indonesia or Malaysia except that there could be some switching from refined palm oil to palm oil in crude form. Currently, the import duty on crude palm oil is 2.5%. The tax differential between crude and refined palm oil would increase to 7.5 percentage points due to the higher import duty on refined palm oil versus 5 percentage points previously.
News and view from AmResearch 10 Jan 2014: Bloomberg reported that India has increased the import duty on refined palm oil from 7.5% to 10%. We are not surprised by this development as palm refiners in India have been lobbying for a higher import duty since mid-2013. At that time, the refiners had proposed an import duty of 12.5% on refined palm oil. The Indian Government has given in to the proposal of a higher import duty but at a rate of 10%. Due to the low tax differential between crude and refined palm oil, buyers in India had preferred to import refined palm oil directly instead of buying them from the refiners. It was reported that palm refiners in India were operating at low utilisation rates of only 30%. Companies operating palm refineries in India include Wilmar Adani and Ruchi Soya Industries. We believe that the increase in import duty would not significantly affect the demand for palm oil. India would still be buying palm oil from Indonesia or Malaysia except that there could be some switching from refined palm oil to palm oil in crude form. Currently, the import duty on crude palm oil is 2.5%. The tax differential between crude and refined palm oil would increase to 7.5 percentage points due to the higher import duty on refined palm oil versus 5 percentage points previously.
Wednesday, January 8, 2014
"Ice cream" treats & Magnum
Ice cream is a big business for Unilever. “With almost USD13 billion in sales across brands such as (Magnum), Cornetto, Breyers, Klondike, and Ben & Jerry’s, ice cream is Unilever’s single biggest category, accounting for about 15% of total revenue, according to researcher Euromonitor. London and Rotterdam-based Unilever is also the world’s biggest maker of ice cream, with about 20% of the USD85 billion market, ahead of Vevey, Switzerland-based Nestle... Magnum’s sales, which have doubled since 2006, top EUR 1 billion (USD1.24 billion) worldwide this year, making ice cream a standout in Unilever’s sluggish food unit. Sold in 50 countries, Magnum is Europe’s top ice cream brand” (Bloomberg.com, 5 Aug 2012).
The key markets differ. Parthenon research says that “The USD12 billion US ice cream market is unique because more than half of total sales come from packaged tubs sold in supermarkets and eaten at home… In Europe, more consumption takes place outside the home in single-serve, more-profitable portions… (not surprisingly) major players.. “are increasingly shifting their focus to so-called frozen novelties -- single-serve treats on sticks or in cones… (which) command 21.2% of the US market” How is Magnum positioned in Asian emerging markets? “Magnum costs about three times as much as locally produced ice cream bars, lending it cachet among the emerging middle class, a group projected to increase from 500 million people to more than 3 billion across Asia by 2030” (Bloomberg.com, 5 Aug 2012).
In India, the biggest dairy producer is losing ground in the booming frozen treats market. Gujarat Co-Operative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd advertises that real ice cream contains milk, in a campaign seeking to highlight the lack of the ingredient in most of its global rival’s Indian products: cream, or any other dairy fat… “One reason producers have developed recipes without cream is that milk fat is about five times as expensive as fats derived from palm oil and coconut oil… Another advantage is that dairy-based frozen desserts tend to melt faster than those made from plant oils, according to Doug Goff, food scientist at the University of Guelph. That’s important in a country as hot as India…. (its) consumers have decided they’re happy with frozen desserts using cheaper fats such as palm oil. In the five years to 2012, Gujarat Co-operative’s share of the market for frozen treats fell to 31% from 35% while Unilever’s rose to 21% from 17%, according to researcher Euromonitor…. Indians eat an average of 200 milliliters of ice cream each year, versus 14 liters in the US and 2.2 liters in China” (bloomberg.com, 26 Sep 2013). In 2010, world consumption was 2.4 liters/head (data includes both dairy- and non-dairy-fat based products).
Khor Reports Blog only supplementary info: Doug Goff, reports “on the use of non-dairy fats in frozen desserts. A blend of 75% of either fractionated palm kernel oil or coconut oil and 25% of an unsaturated oil, like high oleic sunflower oil, was shown to produce optimal levels of fat destabilization, meltdown and flavour, although coconut oil may take longer to crystallize during aging. Blends of 50% milkfat, 37.5% fractionated palm kernel or coconut oil, and 12.5% high oleic sunflower oil were also shown to be very acceptable” (uoguelph.ca, accessed 1 Dec 2013)
Look out for Khor Reports' Oil Palm Newsletter #6 Jan/Feb 2014!
The key markets differ. Parthenon research says that “The USD12 billion US ice cream market is unique because more than half of total sales come from packaged tubs sold in supermarkets and eaten at home… In Europe, more consumption takes place outside the home in single-serve, more-profitable portions… (not surprisingly) major players.. “are increasingly shifting their focus to so-called frozen novelties -- single-serve treats on sticks or in cones… (which) command 21.2% of the US market” How is Magnum positioned in Asian emerging markets? “Magnum costs about three times as much as locally produced ice cream bars, lending it cachet among the emerging middle class, a group projected to increase from 500 million people to more than 3 billion across Asia by 2030” (Bloomberg.com, 5 Aug 2012).
In India, the biggest dairy producer is losing ground in the booming frozen treats market. Gujarat Co-Operative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd advertises that real ice cream contains milk, in a campaign seeking to highlight the lack of the ingredient in most of its global rival’s Indian products: cream, or any other dairy fat… “One reason producers have developed recipes without cream is that milk fat is about five times as expensive as fats derived from palm oil and coconut oil… Another advantage is that dairy-based frozen desserts tend to melt faster than those made from plant oils, according to Doug Goff, food scientist at the University of Guelph. That’s important in a country as hot as India…. (its) consumers have decided they’re happy with frozen desserts using cheaper fats such as palm oil. In the five years to 2012, Gujarat Co-operative’s share of the market for frozen treats fell to 31% from 35% while Unilever’s rose to 21% from 17%, according to researcher Euromonitor…. Indians eat an average of 200 milliliters of ice cream each year, versus 14 liters in the US and 2.2 liters in China” (bloomberg.com, 26 Sep 2013). In 2010, world consumption was 2.4 liters/head (data includes both dairy- and non-dairy-fat based products).
Khor Reports Blog only supplementary info: Doug Goff, reports “on the use of non-dairy fats in frozen desserts. A blend of 75% of either fractionated palm kernel oil or coconut oil and 25% of an unsaturated oil, like high oleic sunflower oil, was shown to produce optimal levels of fat destabilization, meltdown and flavour, although coconut oil may take longer to crystallize during aging. Blends of 50% milkfat, 37.5% fractionated palm kernel or coconut oil, and 12.5% high oleic sunflower oil were also shown to be very acceptable” (uoguelph.ca, accessed 1 Dec 2013)
Look out for Khor Reports' Oil Palm Newsletter #6 Jan/Feb 2014!
Labels:
Europe market,
ice cream,
India,
Khor Reports newsletter,
Nestle,
palm oil,
Unilever
Welcome back and Happy 2014
Happy New Year to all. Khor Report was away on our holiday and newsletter #6 is in its final preparation now. As a teaser, we offer you some articles while awaiting our Jan/Feb issue release.
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